Will Pakistan be second time lucky?

2009 T20 world cup final is quite similar compared to last T20 world cup.

• Two Asian giants are in final again.
• Umar Gul and Shahid Afridi is in top form with ball like last world cup.
  Both finalists have new captain.
• Kumar Sangkara is new leader of Sri Lanka and this is his first full assignment as captain like Dhoni in last world cup.
• Sri Lankan opener Tilakratne Dilshan is in top form like Indian opener Gautam Gambhir in last world cup.

Will Pakistan be able to turn the table this time? Let’s see what model tells about this final.

Pakistan fields first

Pakistan won the toss

If Sri Lanka scores <= 157 then Pakistan has winning chance >= 90%.
If Sri Lanka scores >= 183 then Pakistan has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off score = 168.

Sri Lanka won the toss











If Sri Lanka scores <= 139 then Pakistan has winning chance >= 90%.
If Sri Lanka scores >= 164 then Pakistan has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off score = 149.

Pakistan bats first

Pakistan won the toss

If Pakistan scores <= 145 then Sri Lanka has winning chance >= 90%.
If Pakistan scores >= 170 then Sri Lanka has winning chance <= 10%.

Cut off score = 155.

Sri Lanka won the toss











If Pakistan scores <= 163 then Sri Lanka has winning chance >= 90%.
If Pakistan scores >= 189 then Sri Lanka has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off score = 174.

Will it be all Asian final again or there is still some twist in the tail?

Pakistan is in final once again as South Africa hot favorites of the tournament continued their bad runs in the semi finals of ICC tournament. Another Asian giant Sri Lanka is playing against West Indies today and are hot favorite to win this game due to the bowling attack they have. So, will it be all Asian final again or Chris Gayle and company has something else in their mind today? Let’s find out.

Sri Lanka fields first

Sri Lanka won the toss

If West Indies scores <= 123 then Sri Lanka has winning chance >= 90%.
If West Indies score >= 149 then Sri Lanka has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 134.













West Indies won the toss

If West Indies scores <= 104 then Sri Lanka has winning chance >= 90%.
If West Indies score >= 132 then Sri Lanka has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 115.













Sri Lanka bats first

Sri Lanka won the toss

If Sri Lanka scores <= 103 then West Indies has winning chance >= 90%.
If Sri Lanka score >= 128 then West Indies winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 113.













West Indies won the toss

If Sri Lanka scores <= 122 then West Indies has winning chance >= 90%.
If Sri Lanka score >= 147 then West Indies has winning chance <= 10%. Cut off Score = 132.

Will South Africa be able to remove 'Choker' tag?

South Africa one of the consistent performers since their return in international cricket is yet to win any ICC trophy. They came close several times but failed to pass the last few hurdle. Most famous failure for South Africa is 1999 World Cup in England. They reached the semi final and tied the match but was eliminated because they had lost to Australia in group stage. Will South Africa be able to remove ‘Choker’ tag this time. Let’s see what model tells about today’s semi final.

South Africa fields first

Toss Won

If Pakistan scores <= 150 then South Africa has winning chance >= 90%.
If Pakistan scores >= 175 then South Africa has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 160.

Toss won by Pakistan











If Pakistan scores <= 132 then South Africa has winning chance >= 90%.
If Pakistan scores >= 159 then South Africa has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 142.

South Africa bats first
Toss Won











If South Africa scores <= 122 then Pakistan has winning chance >= 90%.
If South Africa scores >= 147 then Pakistan has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 135.

Toss won by Pakistan

If South Africa scores <= 140 then Pakistan has winning chance >= 90%.
If South Africa scores >= 165 then Pakistan has winning chance <= 10%.
Cut off Score = 149.

Why Model wasn’t able to predict in low scoring games?

Look at the matrix below for the matches where test playing nation was chasing the score.
* Team 2 is chasing team.

Before T20 world cup 2009, test playing nations haven't lost a single game when score is equal to or below 144. They have chased down all 24 scores equal to or below 144. Dataset (Matches before T20 world cup 2009) on which model was built doesn't have any observation to capture this effect. Due to this model wasn't able predict correctly.

T20 World Cup 2009 : Prediction for June 16, 2009 Match2

India Vs. South Africa

If South Africa Scores <= 135 then Indis has winning chance >= 90%.
If South Africa Scores >= 160 then India has winning chance <= 10%.

Cut off score (60%) = 145

T20 World Cup 2009 : Prediction for June 16, 2009

Sri Lanka Vs. New Zealand

If Sri Lanka Scores <= 132 then New Zealand has winning chance >= 90%.
If Sri Lanka Scores >= 158 then New Zealand has winning chance <= 10%.

Cut off score (60%) = 143

Probability Curve for New Zealand

T20 World Cup 2009: Prediction for June 15, 2009

Pakistan Vs. Ireland Match

If Pakistan Scores <= 133 then Ireland has winning chance >= 90%.

If Pakistan Scores >= 159 then Ireland has winning chance <= 10%.

Cut off score (60%) = 144

Probability curve for Ireland

T20 World Cup 2009 : Prediction for 15 June 2009 Match2

West Indies Vs. England (Model will not work for D/L method)

If England Scores <=93 then West Indies has winning chance >= 90%.

If England Scores >= 120 then West Indies has winning chance <= 10%.

Cut off score (60%) = 104

Probability curve for West Indies

T20 World Cup 2009 : Predicted Results and Probability Curve

Predicted Results (Predicted Winner - If Team2 winning chance is > 60% then Team2 else Team1.)

Group Matches













Super Eight Matches










Model Accuracy
As of June 14, 2009 = 17/19 = 89.5%


Probability Curve

How to understand the curve?
The curve has been plotted for Team2 (Chasing team). If actual score team1 falls between 60% and 100% winning chance then Team2 will win otherwise lose.

Can analytics predict the winner of T20 matches?

Uncertainty of the game
Cricket is known for its uncertainty and this uncertainty increases as the number of overs reduces. This uncertainty and fast pace of game makes T20 more interesting and thrilling. We have seen quite a few upsets in this format. For instance, the opening match of T20 world cup 2009 England vs. Netherlands and what a match that was. Netherlands managed to beat the host country. One day champion Australia was not able to qualify for the super eight stages. This list is full of surprises and will keep growing.

Analytics in cricket
The relationship between analytics and cricket is old. Nearly 150 years ago Englishman and Sussex fast bowler, John Wisden, published his first annual Almanac and turned cricket statistics into a business. Now, Wisden is the Bible of cricket. New Zealand cricket has been using SAS, a statistical analysis tool, for a long time to define real time strategy.
So, can analytics predict the winner of the match in spite of the uncertain nature of the game?
Yes, analytics can predict the winner of the match with a certain degree of error. We have built a statistical model to predict the winner of the match after the first inning and till now it has correctly predicted the winner of match for 12 games out of 13, in the ICC T20 tournament, 2009. We are not considering the New Zealand vs. Scotland match of 7 overs, as it was too short. Now you are eager to see the result of match predictions. The wait is over. Here are the results.

Group Matches














Super Eight Matches

Overall prediction accuracy as on June 14, 2009= 17/19 = 89.5%
*The model can predict the winner after the first inning.

*This is a mathematical model and shouldn’t be used for any purpose.