Why Model wasn’t able to predict in low scoring games?

Look at the matrix below for the matches where test playing nation was chasing the score.
* Team 2 is chasing team.

Before T20 world cup 2009, test playing nations haven't lost a single game when score is equal to or below 144. They have chased down all 24 scores equal to or below 144. Dataset (Matches before T20 world cup 2009) on which model was built doesn't have any observation to capture this effect. Due to this model wasn't able predict correctly.